Every month I pick 10 young Serie D players who, going by the public numbers, deserve attention. I write them down today, with the date. In a few months we'll see together who I got right and who I got wrong.
Why it matters: in these leagues the numbers exist, but almost nobody reads them.
Serie D Radar: 10 young players to follow, picked today
October's 10 names
Tap a name to see the numbers and sources.
01Mattia Valmoriage 21 · centre-forward · CastellanzesePlays every game and has already scored 5 goals in 7.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 94.4
- 5 goals and 1 assist in 555' (88% of minutes). source
- Hat-trick v Pontedera on 06/09, then scored v Crema and Sant'Angelo. source
- 0.77 (G+A)/90 after the small-sample correction; Castellanzese 4th. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals high · Minutes high · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree02Tommaso Lagomarsinoage 20 · left-back · PistoieseFirst-choice left-back for the league leaders, with 4 assists already.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 87.0
- 4 assists and 1 goal in 604' (96% of minutes). source
- Full-back, started 7 of 7; 0.45 assists/90 after the small-sample correction. source
- Pistoiese 1st after 7 rounds; born 2006. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals high · Minutes medium · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree03Giorgio Citterioage 23 · right winger · Casatese Merate4 goals so far: his team's top scorer.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 75.6
- 4 goals in 427' (68% of minutes), Casatese's top scorer. source
- 0.65 goals+assists per 90' after the small-sample correction, second among eligible forwards. source
- Born 2003, right winger; Casatese 6th after 7 rounds. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals medium · Minutes medium · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree04Alessandro Latiniage 23 · defensive midfielder · OltrepòHasn't missed a minute, in a side fighting near the bottom of the table.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 68.8
- 630' of 630 (100%), started all 7 rounds. source
- 1 goal and 1 assist as a defensive midfielder. source
- Born 2003, signed from Crema; Oltrepò 17th: an ever-present in a struggling side. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals medium · Minutes medium · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree05Orso Maria De Pontiage 20 · defensive midfielder · VareseAt 20 he has played every minute for Varese, 630 out of 630.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 67.7
- 630' of 630 (100%): 90' in all 7 rounds. source
- Defensive midfielder (Transfermarkt main position), 1 assist; full 90' v Crema and Oltrepò too (rounds 6 and 7). source
- Born 2005; Varese 9th after 7 rounds. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals medium · Minutes high · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree06Andrea Arpiniage 23 · right-back · CremaStarted all 7 games, with one assist.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 65.6
- 572' of 630 (91%), started 7 of 7. source
- 1 assist, in the 3-2 win over Varese on 04/10. source
- Born 2003, two-year renewal in June 2026; Crema 15th. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals medium · Minutes medium · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree07Pietro Itraloniage 21 · central midfielder · Casatese MerateStarted 6 of 7 for a side in the top half of the table.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 61.8
- 562' of 630 (89%), 6 starts in 7. source
- 1 assist, in the 4-2 win over Varesina on 27/09. source
- Born 2005, 35 apps for Pavia in 2025/26; Casatese 6th. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals medium · Minutes medium · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree08Tommaso Matellaage 19 · centre-back · CastellanzeseAt 19 he is an ever-present in one of the best defences in the group.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 59.8
- 621' of 630 (99%), started 7 of 7. source
- 1 goal (4-0 v Crema, 27/09) and 1 assist. source
- Born 2007, an ever-present in a side lying 4th. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals high · Minutes high · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree09Alessandro Sassaroage 22 · centre-back · CastellanzeseAlways on the pitch in one of the best defences in the group, and he has scored too.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 57.7
- 596' of 630 available (95%), started all 7 rounds. source
- 1 goal, in the 4-0 win over Crema on 27/09; Castellanzese conceded 5 in 7 (0.71 per match). source
- Born 2004 (22); Castellanzese 4th after 7 rounds. source
How solid the numbers are: Goals high · Minutes medium · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree10Alessandro Dianaage 22 · left winger · Casatese MerateNearly always in the starting XI, 2 assists; banned for one match.
Method score (0-100, compared with players in the same role): 55.6
- 395' (63% of minutes), 6 starts in 7. source
- 2 assists (lower of the two sources: Transfermarkt counts 3). source
- Sent off on 11/10 v Cittadella Modena, 1-match ban (LND bulletin no.33, 13/10/2026). source
How solid the numbers are: Goals medium · Minutes medium · Assists medium
high = confirmed match by match; medium = two sources agree
On watch: Viscardi (Pro Sesto, assists confirmed by one source only) and Suatoni (Solbiatese, sources disagree on minutes). They get in only once the data is confirmed.
How we check
- The picks stay here exactly as written on 18/10/2026: I don't change them afterwards.
- We check them three times: end of November, end of January and May, at the end of the season.
- A pick is right if the player keeps playing and performs above the average for his role, or if he moves up a level or gets a representative call-up.
- We publish the misses too, and compare the result with a simple “sensible guess”: the three young players with the most minutes in the group.
A new list every month, mid-month.
Log
Entries are never edited. Only outcomes are added.
| Player and club | Picked on | Outcome | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia ValmoriCastellanzese | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 94.4 |
| Tommaso LagomarsinoPistoiese | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 87.0 |
| Giorgio CitterioCasatese Merate | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 75.6 |
| Alessandro LatiniOltrepò | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 68.8 |
| Orso Maria De PontiVarese | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 67.7 |
| Andrea ArpiniCrema | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 65.6 |
| Pietro ItraloniCasatese Merate | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 61.8 |
| Tommaso MatellaCastellanzese | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 59.8 |
| Alessandro SassaroCastellanzese | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 57.7 |
| Alessandro DianaCasatese Merate | 18/10/2026 | in progress | 55.6 |
Next checks: ≈ 24/11/2026, ≈ 31/01/2027, 03/05/2027.
The method in detail
For anyone who wants to know exactly how the names are picked.
The rules were written on 17 October 2026 and completed on 18 October, before the final ranking and before any release was published (role-relative scoring and quotas). From now on any change creates a new dated version and applies only to later picks.
Three conditions to get in
- at least 35% of available minutes;
- numbers confirmed by at least two independent sources;
- born in 2003 or later.
How the score is built
- 45Output in the role, corrected for small samples, as a percentile within the role
- 25Share of minutes played
- 15Age relative to the under-age quota
- 15Team's league position
Each number is compared with players in the same role (as a percentile: 1 = best in the role, 0 = last), so a defender doesn't win just by playing lots of minutes.
Role quotas: 2 centre-backs, 2 full-backs or wing-backs, 3 midfielders, 3 forwards. If a role has fewer valid players, the spot goes to the best one left.
The small-sample correction adds three “average” matches for the role to every player, so a few good games are not enough to reach the top.
A pick counts as a hit if at season's end it holds its minutes (−10 points tolerance) and its output is above the role median, or if the player moves up a level or gets a representative call-up. I publish the hit rate, misses included, against a naive baseline: the three under-age players with the most minutes in the group.
Limits
- There is no official source for player minutes in Serie D. Minutes come from two unofficial sources, Transfermarkt and zerozero.
- Minutes confidence is “high” only when match reports cover every match; otherwise it is “medium”.
- For a centre-back the score uses starts and the team's goals conceded per match: a team-level figure, because goals conceded with him on the pitch are not public.
- The score compares each player with his own role: with groups of 7-9 eligible players the percentiles are imprecise, and a 60 for a centre-back is not the same as a 60 for a forward.
- The role averages used in the correction are stated assumptions. They will be recomputed on the whole group at the first check.
What this means for a club
In Serie D data is produced every week, but almost nobody reads it with a method. My work is closing that gap, with rules anyone can check.
If you work at a club or in a scouting team and want to discuss it, write to me: mirkotornani@gmail.com · LinkedIn